Utah Lumber Co. Market Intelligence Report

I’m putting this issue together with one good arm. Lumber buyers seem equally determined not to
carry anything heavy – especially inventory. Last week’s Limbo Edition has not turned into a recovery
party. Buyers still have leverage where prompt inventory needs a home.
Six Utah Lumber averages moved lower, led by KD Studs and Southern Pine. ESPF held on mixed
evidence; Euro is a provisional hold. Common narrows still invite counters, but selected wides have their own
replacement story. Tuesday morning November futures fell to $520, just $5 above the October 8 contract low;
the session low was even closer, at $517.50. September total housing starts fell 7.4% annually, even while
single-family starts edged up 2.6%.

Some sellers are playing limbo. Some buyers are playing chicken. And a few tight items are still
playing hard to get. After roughly 90 days of decline, the answer to “How low can it go?” depends on which
supplier you cal, what is sitting in the yard and how badly it needs to move.
We held the benchmarks because the trading range is as much of a moving target as a drunk trying to play
darts blindfolded! Where will we find a floor…or a shelf…or a life preserver? A mil protecting replacement,
a desperate wholesaler cleaning up a high costed position and a seler not in distress may quote very different
numbers for the same item.

Last week three categories found the brake pedal. This week all eight are rolling downhill again. Utah
Lumber averages fell $5-$15/MBF. The simple eight-category average is $449.38/MBF, down $8.13 from last
week. The showroom still has plenty of shoppers. The checkout line remains manageable.

Welcome to the lumber showroom. Plenty of people checking the price tag, a few kicking the tires, and the firm
offer is apparently waiting in the car. Five Utah Lumber averages moved lower; WSPF, ESPF and Euro
held flat. That is an improvement from last week’s eight-for-eight decline. We will take it. Confetti is still subject
to credit approval.

Getting a firm offer lately feels like pulling teeth. At this point, the trading desk needs a dental license or a
Brooklyn wise guy to assist. The mood is rough, trucking continues to be a never-ending nightmare and all
eight Utah Lumber averages moved lower this week. Apparently, the market took “fall buying season”
literally.